18 Year Longitudinal Analysis of Hoboken City Schools Clearly Shows White Enrollment Has Increased, Free and Reduced Percentages Have Decreased While Accountability Measures Continue to Underperform

Snow storm aftermath- Hoboken, NJ March, 2017 
Are the Hoboken Public Schools experiencing "white flight"? Is the percentage of poor students in the Hoboken School District really 80%? Is the socio-economic demographics of the Hoboken School District the main reason for low test scores? These are all very good questions and thankfully there is independent, NJ Department of Education data that can help us parse the rhetoric from the facts. We will look at 2 specific measures in this post. The percentage of students identified as white and the percentage of students identified as free or reduced lunch over an 18 year period so we can not only see year to year variation but also longer term trends.  We will then explore whether these socio-economic factors explain aspects of district achievement. 

First, the percentage of white students in the Hoboken Public Schools have INCREASED from 15% in 1999-2000 to 33.2 % in 2015-16 (Figure 1). That is a large increase. 


Figure 1: Percentage of Students Identified as White
Hoboken School District 1998-2016
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Second- Of course, there is variability in the income level of students from families identified as white so the next analysis should look at the percentage of students from families who qualify for "free or reduced lunch" which for a family of four is in the neighborhood of between $32,000 (free) to $43,000 (reduced). During roughly the same time period, the percentage of enrolled students qualifying for "free or reduced lunch" in the Hoboken School District has declined steadily from around 85% in 1998-99 to around 50% in 2015-16 (Figure 2). That is a pretty sizable reduction over time. 


Figure 2:Percentage of Students Identified as "Free or Reduced Lunch"
Hoboken School District 1998-2016
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Third, according to Hoboken Patch.com the Hoboken school district's high school is ranked 332 out of 371 high schools with over 33% considered "not yet meeting college expectations." Given the overall demographics and trends in the district, this is somewhat surprising. 

There is much evidence that socio-economic status (SES) has a positive impact of student achievement and standardized testing. Here is how the Hoboken School District ranked among other "like" school districts in the State of NJ on 2016 PARCC scores (districts classified as "FG" school districts). It would be safe to assume that as a school district's SES profile transitions from a high percentage of free or reduced students to less free or reduced students (from 86% to 52% in the case of Hoboken) and as the percentage of students identified by the district as white increases (from 16% to 32% in the case of Hoboken) we would hope to see a corresponding increase in such outcome measures as student achievement, high school graduation rate, violence and vandalism, and standardized testing. There have been little to no such increases in the Hoboken Public Schools since the 2009-10 school year- the year the political group known as "Kids First" and their various incarnations have had majority control of the Hoboken Board of Education and the education of the children of Hoboken. 

2016 NJPARCC COMPOSTITE MEAN SCORE- ALL “FG” School District
Data: New Jersey Department of Education

COUNTY NAME
DISTRICT NAME
DFG
MEAN SS
OCEAN
LONG BEACH ISLAND
FG
775
BERGEN
NORTHVALE BORO
FG
769
MONMOUTH
SPRING LAKE HEIGHTS BORO
FG
766
UNION
CLARK TWP
FG
762
PASSAIC
LITTLE FALLS TWP
FG
762
MONMOUTH
MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL
FG
761
MIDDLESEX
MONROE TWP
FG
761
SUSSEX
SANDYSTON-WALPACK TWP
FG
760
PASSAIC
BLOOMINGDALE BORO
FG
759
WARREN
HOPE TWP
FG
759
HUNTERDON
HOLLAND TWP
FG
758
CAPE MAY
STONE HARBOR BORO
FG
758
BERGEN
DUMONT BORO
FG
757
BERGEN
FORT LEE BORO
FG
757
PASSAIC
NORTH HALEDON BORO
FG
757
BURLINGTON
BORDENTOWN REGIONAL
FG
756
OCEAN
POINT PLEASANT BEACH BORO
FG
756
OCEAN
POINT PLEASANT BORO
FG
756
GLOUCESTER
WOODBURY HEIGHTS BORO
FG
756
MONMOUTH
HOWELL TWP
FG
755
BERGEN
ROCHELLE PARK TWP
FG
755
MIDDLESEX
SOUTH PLAINFIELD BORO
FG
755
GLOUCESTER
MANTUA TWP
FG
754
CAMDEN
COLLINGSWOOD BORO
FG
753
MORRIS
LINCOLN PARK BORO
FG
753
MIDDLESEX
MIDDLESEX BORO
FG
753
BERGEN
NEW MILFORD BORO
FG
753
CAMDEN
GIBBSBORO BORO
FG
752
BERGEN
MAYWOOD BORO
FG
752
GLOUCESTER
SOUTH HARRISON TWP
FG
752
CAPE MAY
UPPER TWP
FG
752
BURLINGTON
HAINESPORT TWP
FG
751
SUSSEX
HARDYSTON TWP
FG
751
GLOUCESTER
LOGAN TWP
FG
751
MIDDLESEX
OLD BRIDGE TWP
FG
751
MORRIS
ROCKAWAY BORO
FG
751
SUSSEX
STILLWATER TWP
FG
751
BERGEN
BERGENFIELD BORO
FG
750
BERGEN
HASBROUCK HEIGHTS BORO
FG
750
ESSEX
NUTLEY TOWN
FG
750
ATLANTIC
PORT REPUBLIC CITY
FG
750
BURLINGTON
SPRINGFIELD TWP
FG
750
SALEM
WOODSTOWN-PILESGROVE REG
FG
750
GLOUCESTER
EAST GREENWICH TWP
FG
749
PASSAIC
WEST MILFORD TWP
FG
749
BERGEN
WOOD-RIDGE BORO
FG
749
BURLINGTON
CINNAMINSON TWP
FG
748
WARREN
KNOWLTON TWP
FG
748
MORRIS
RIVERDALE BORO
FG
748
MORRIS
BOONTON TOWN
FG
747
PASSAIC
POMPTON LAKES BORO
FG
747
SUSSEX
VERNON TWP
FG
747
WARREN
BLAIRSTOWN TWP
FG
746
SUSSEX
FRANKFORD TWP
FG
745
MIDDLESEX
MILLTOWN BORO
FG
745
MORRIS
MINE HILL TWP
FG
745
BURLINGTON
BURLINGTON TWP
FG
744
MIDDLESEX
DUNELLEN BORO
FG
744
MIDDLESEX
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP
FG
744
MONMOUTH
EATONTOWN BORO
FG
743
CAMDEN
HADDON TWP
FG
743
MERCER
HAMILTON TWP
FG
743
GLOUCESTER
WASHINGTON TWP
FG
743
MONMOUTH
WEST LONG BRANCH BORO
FG
743
HUDSON
HOBOKEN CITY
FG
742
CAMDEN
BARRINGTON BORO
FG
741
BURLINGTON
LUMBERTON TWP
FG
739
HUNTERDON
KINGWOOD TWP
FG
738
MONMOUTH
OCEAN TWP
FG
737
BURLINGTON
DELRAN TWP
FG
736
BURLINGTON
EASTAMPTON TWP
FG
736
WARREN
MANSFIELD TWP
FG
736
GLOUCESTER
PITMAN BORO
FG
736
SUSSEX
HOPATCONG
FG
735
SOMERSET
SOMERVILLE BORO
FG
732
SUSSEX
OGDENSBURG BORO
FG
730
SUSSEX
ANDOVER REG
FG
728




Summary: Over the last two decades in the Hoboken School District, the percentage of students identified as white has increased dramatically. Concurrently and somewhat correspondingly, the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced lunch has decreased significantly. Nonetheless, mandated New Jersey state accountability assessments place the district's high school in the lower percentages of all public and charter school districts in the state and among the lowest within its district factor group. 

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